Derrick (@Derrick_L)

#ZeroHedge finally published something about lumber prices. The bottom range they gave was $200-400 (my range is $250-350), and they estimate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates back to 0% (my estimate is 4-4.5%). #Lumber peaked at $1,336 per thousand board feet in late February but has settled at around $380 this week, representing a dramatic 72% decline in prices, primarily due to elevated #MortgageRates, slowing #housing activity, waning #builder confidence, and overall mounting #macroeconomic #headwinds. The plunge in lumber prices is no surprise as builder confidence for newly-built single-family homes posted its 12th consecutive month of declines in December, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Confidence is at its lowest reading since mid-2012. Besides dismal homebuilder sentiment, housing starts and building permits for November also showed deterioration in the housing industry. The number of housing starts (#SAAR) is at the lowest since June 2020. Lumber prices are expected to remain range bound between $400 and $200 until #JayPowell is forced to cut #InterestRates back to zero due to the recession and sparks the next housing craze. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/lumber-prices-collapse-homebuilder-sentiment-falters