Derrick (@Derrick_L)

#Summary: - no significant change in inflation - #coreCPI is 5.3% vs Fed funds of 5.00-5.25% - no projected cuts in the Fed funds rates according to any of the voting members - potential for at least 0.5% increase in the Fed funds rate by the end of 2023 (5.5 - 5.75%... may be higher) - rate of change of interest rates has slowed, not stopped “Chair #Powell, what’s the value in pausing and signaling future hikes versus just hiking now?” asked #NickTimiraos from the #WSJ. “I mean, not to be flippant, but I don’t lose weight just by buying a gym membership; I have to actually go to the gym. Sixteen of your colleagues put down a higher year-end ’23 rate today. A majority of you think you’re going to have to go up by 50 basis points this year. So why not just rip off the #BandAid and raise #FedFundsRates today?” * * * Response from #FederalReserve Chair #JayPowell at his press conference, leaving interest rates unchanged at 5.00-5.25%, below the latest 5.3% annual #core #CPI. “We’re two-and-a-half years into this or two-and-a-quarter years into this. And forecasters, including Fed forecasters, have consistently thought that inflation was about to turn down, and, you know, typically forecasted that it would, and been wrong." “I think if you look at core #PCE #inflation overall, look at it over the last six months, you’re just not seeing a lot of progress. It’s running over 4.5%, far above our #target, and not really moving down,” he said. “We want to see it moving down decisively, that’s all. We are, of course, going to get inflation down to 2% over time." “We want to do that with the minimum damage we can to the economy, of course. But we have to get inflation down to 2%, and we will. And we just don’t see that yet.” “As anyone can see, not a single person on the committee wrote down a rate cut this year nor do I think it is at all likely to be appropriate, if you think about it. Inflation has not really moved down. It has not so far reacted much to our - to our existing rate hikes and so we’re going to have to keep at it.” https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-only-thing-worse-pausing-prematurely-having-fed-chair-who-lacks-decisiveness