Matthew Bracken (@Matt_Bracken)

Start to learn all you can about the "Osprey," the USMC MV-22 tilt-rotor aircraft. The looming Iran conflict promises to make it as prominent in 2026 as the Huey and Chinook helicopters were in the Vietnam war. There may be up to a dozen Ospreys aboard the Tripoli, LHA-7, now on its way toward Iran. With 12 Ospreys carrying 32 Marines each, a force of 384 Marines could be transported in a single lift. However, this would be just Marines with their personal gear, and no supporting arms or logistical sustainment material, so cut that number about in half. So call it 200 Marines per lift of 12 Ospreys, assuming no aircraft are shot down or suffer mechanical breakdowns on each lift. The Osprey flies at about 300 mph, so each 1,100 mile trip to Kharg Island and back to the Tripoli would take almost 4 hours. This would leave only 200 Marines on Kharg Island until the next lift arrived, so let's rule this mission profile out. Instead, it's more likely that the Ospreys will ferry the Marines to a staging point in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait opposite Kharg Island, for a quicker recycle rate on landing the Marines. However, this puts the vulnerable staging ground at risk of Iranian missile and drone attack. (China and Russia will inform Iran of their location in real time.) Paratroops can also be dropped from C-130s and even C-17s, but the risk of a plane loaded with troops being shot down approaching Kharg Island must be very worrying to mission planners. 100+ Americans dying in a plane crash would probably end the war, politically, and likely end Trump's presidency. Even Ospreys going down with 20+ Marines aboard would be considered a disaster. But what about other, closer Iranian islands? Closer to the critical Strait of Hormuz? They are much bigger than Kharg Island. The two islands making up "The Iranian Toll Booth," Qeshm and Larak, are larger than Okinawa and Iwo Jima. I hope I don't have to tell you how many Americans died taking them in WW2. Anyway, keep your eyes open for any news about our USMC Ospreys. This may be "their war."