Many people are saying that they are not spending Christmas with family as it is “not worth the risk”, and they probably right but not becuz of coronahoax, but becuz the risk to them or their loved ones dying in a road traffic collision would be the way they would die ..
Let's look at the coronahoax scenario shall we. In order for a person without coronavirus symptoms to “kill their Granny” this Christmas, a very specific chain of events has to occur, so what's the stats ..?
First of all, given that you have no symptoms, what are the chances that you are infected with Sars CoV-2? The ONS estimates this to be 1 in 115, or 0.87%. Now, imagining you are infected, but you don’t have any symptoms, what is the probability that you will infect somebody else with Sars CoV-2? Recent studies show this is around 0.7% ..
If we multiply the probability of these two events, we can calculate the likelihood of you a) being infected & b) passing that infection on without symptoms. This gives a figure of 0.006% .. To put that figure in context, it’s roughly the same as your chance of dying in a car crash over the course of any given year ..
But don't forget, VERY IMPORTANTLY,, if you infect someone, this doesn’t mean that they are going to end up dying of Covid pneumonia. Far from it, in fact. There is a lot of debate regarding the IFR of Sars CoV-2, but the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine puts it at roughly 0.5%. Now, if we multiply the chance of infecting another person (without symptoms) by the fatality rate, we can estimate that the risk of “killing” one of your relatives is roughly 0.00003%, or 1 in 3 million, if they're really healthy that would of course be much lower ..
BUT THERE'S another HUGE CAVEAT > PCR tests..The first number we used (the number of infected individuals in the UK) is based on positive PCR results. It is possible that only 3% of these positive results are accurate..
SO that means that the risk of a person “KILLING” a relative without any discernible coronavirus symptoms will be as low as 1 in 30 million – the same sort of likelihood of you WiNNING the National Lottery....![:joy: 😂](/emoji/1f602.svg)
![:joy: 😂](/emoji/1f602.svg)
Let's look at the coronahoax scenario shall we. In order for a person without coronavirus symptoms to “kill their Granny” this Christmas, a very specific chain of events has to occur, so what's the stats ..?
First of all, given that you have no symptoms, what are the chances that you are infected with Sars CoV-2? The ONS estimates this to be 1 in 115, or 0.87%. Now, imagining you are infected, but you don’t have any symptoms, what is the probability that you will infect somebody else with Sars CoV-2? Recent studies show this is around 0.7% ..
If we multiply the probability of these two events, we can calculate the likelihood of you a) being infected & b) passing that infection on without symptoms. This gives a figure of 0.006% .. To put that figure in context, it’s roughly the same as your chance of dying in a car crash over the course of any given year ..
But don't forget, VERY IMPORTANTLY,, if you infect someone, this doesn’t mean that they are going to end up dying of Covid pneumonia. Far from it, in fact. There is a lot of debate regarding the IFR of Sars CoV-2, but the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine puts it at roughly 0.5%. Now, if we multiply the chance of infecting another person (without symptoms) by the fatality rate, we can estimate that the risk of “killing” one of your relatives is roughly 0.00003%, or 1 in 3 million, if they're really healthy that would of course be much lower ..
BUT THERE'S another HUGE CAVEAT > PCR tests..The first number we used (the number of infected individuals in the UK) is based on positive PCR results. It is possible that only 3% of these positive results are accurate..
SO that means that the risk of a person “KILLING” a relative without any discernible coronavirus symptoms will be as low as 1 in 30 million – the same sort of likelihood of you WiNNING the National Lottery....
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