Patricia (@P2P)

“...An empty retail shelf or case for a 24, 36 to 48-hour period is not, I repeat, NOT, part of a systemic supply chain disruption. Those are mostly location & regional specific out of stock situations caused by localized events, weather & employee shortages. What CTH has been describing for the past several months is NOT what is noted above. What we have been describing is a long term supply chain crisis that will slowly unfold over a period of about a week or two, & then remain a problem over time, for a period of 6+ months. The 13 bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins to show signs of that type of vulnerability. This outline explains why it is happening & how long it can be expected. In the previous October, November & December warnings, we emphasized preparation & counted down the 90-day window. Now, as we enter the final 2 weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up, & the larger public is starting to notice. Initial food instability signs in the supply chain. Things to look for: (1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically). And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes. (2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein). (3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products. (4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings. (5) The absence of non-seasonal products. (6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain) (7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type. (8) Absence of large container products (9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers) (10) Big brand shortage. (11) Shortage of wet pet foods (12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc) (13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries. These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain. Once these issues are consistently visible, we are going to descend into food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.” https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/01/09/temporary-empty-shelves-are-not-a-supply-chain-crisis-it-is-important-to-understand-the-difference/#more-224775