Padraig Martin (@PadraigMartin)

Three ISIS Attacks? Unlikely - here is why In March 2006, I returned from the Middle East with my thesis complete. It was under review for classified content, but I was allowed to present my findings at a closed door ISA meeting in Long Beach, CA. In the room were various members of the military and RAND. A team working directly for Donald Rumsfeld was on scene. At the time, I worked for General Russell Howard as a fellow for the on-campus counterterrorism center, working for the DIA.   I presented my thesis and three controversial findings came out of my thesis: 1. Iran was providing anti-tank mines to Al Qai'da - a Wahhabi group known to be a sworn enemy of Iranian Shi'ites, but fighting a mutual enemy (the Americans). I had identified a supply chain route being used with Turkish support. 2. Iran was providing extensive tactical intelligence to the Americans in Afghanistan - largely to benefit the Hazara minority which was frequently targeted by the Taliban. 3. Israel was supporting a strange group on the edge of Iraq and Syria that was getting filled by disaffected members of Al Qai'da, former Baathists, and Syrian criminals. The group had been geographically established since the late 7th Century calling itself "The [true] Islamic Nation" or "State." They were Kharijites - sworn enemies of the Shi'ites since they assassinated the fourth Caliph, Ali. (Shi'a - stems from "Followers of Ali"). I was promptly told that there would be no position for me upon graduating. My brief career at DIA was done. A different Intel agency came to me after graduation. Here is the thing: ISIS was almost exclusively enlisted to undermine Iran and its proxies. The Israelis and later, the Americans, looked the other way on ISIS, as long as it kept its targets local. Syrian Christians, Yazidi, and Shi"ites were all fair game. Attacks in Israel and the US were forbidden. ISIS became highly effective at targeting Hezbollah, Assad's Syrian forces, and regional Shi'ite militias. They even killed a healthy number of IRGC members. Eventually, ISIS grew uncontrollable and began to expand beyond its original geographic limitations (e.g., Egypt). But IS was never destroyed. It still kept its power base. Al Qai'da now has control of Syria - through Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, an ally of Israel and sworn enemy of Iran. Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa famously danced with Trump in the White House. Whereas al-Sharaa apparently disliked ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the two had cooperated on the killings of Druze, Christians, and Shi'ites. Going back to ISIS - given its long history of anti-Shi'ite activities - it seems incredibly odd that ISIS would suddenly attack American institutions in the US. More importantly, and quite weirdly, why attack a Synagogue on a Thursday morning, when it was likely empty, but strike a Norfolk ROTC group during drill? ISIS is not stupid. If it wanted to kill Jews in prayer, it would attack on Friday night, not Thursday morning. ISIS, despite regional proximity, has never really made an attack on or in Israel. ISIS was effectively established by assassinating Shi'ites. It therefore makes no sense to attack the US while it is attacking ISIS's sworn enemy.